Comments on: Maintaining Our Bullish Orientation in the Stock Market & Overall Commodity Prices — But We Could See Some More Fireworks

By: Uncle Tom

Uncle Tom — Thu, 03 Jun 2010 09:52:38 +0000

Isn’t the Stock market doing the classic Gann pattern of 50% down from the new high, 50% or 66% up, before off back down again? Gann said (rough quote): the most important thing I discovered was that markets drop 50% etc. In which case – shouldn’t you plot the recent charts onto e.g. the 1929 crash, which went further down? Though more than happy to be disproved.

By: David Mac

David Mac — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 11:50:32 +0000

Thanks for this great information. If Gold does peak at $2,000 then starts to waterfall I’ll be shorting it all the way down.

By: Jason Nancarrow

Jason Nancarrow — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 10:10:07 +0000

Hi James,
You requested some feedback in your email for this presentation, and indeed your service in general.

First of all, I am exceptionally impressed with the product you present. My main problem at this point in time is lack of capitol to invest- my only way of trading/ investing is via my super, which I am able to self-manage (in a fashion- I move to cash only when the market is at risk of a correction, and re-enter a share portfolio when the correction is at risk of completion. Have only moved 3 times in the last 3 years and have achieved 26% compound returns).

When I do finally have some of my own funds to invest (dont ya love young kids and family commitments)- I will be becoming a subscriber to your service. The historical data alone you guys have collated is worth the subscription by itself.

I must say, however, I am at odds with you on the long term outlook (bull market) for stocks. I have no idea about commodities- have purely studied stock indexes. I would like to see commodities take off.

While I believe you are correct in assuming this leg down is nearly complete, I see a struggling trend up to maybe test the April highs before we test the 2009 low sometime in 2012, in leui of a strong bull market (I do hope I am wrong). From my perspective, we have had I think 4 instances in the past 100 years where we declined more than 50% the high price. Of these, all went to 5/8ths major bear market range for final highs before setting about testing the bear-market low. So far this one has been no different and the deccenial cycles/ mass pressure charts I have drawn up are working a treat.

I fear what will happen in 2013 when the 42 year cycle expires for its usual 3 year decline- a perfect storm is forming from where I sit which is still a while off.

I would be curious to see if your data showed this rally as a bear market rally (very big picture stuff) and what potential the consequenses are in that scenario. I only wish I had accurate data pre 1900 so I could do it myself but have to suffice with what I have.

That said- very happy with your service and what you present, I truely look foward to becoming a client of yours in the near future to extend my historical perspective and trading guidance.

Cheers, Jas

By: Jeff Connell

Jeff Connell — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 05:08:56 +0000

In 1929 we had a decline of just over 1 month and 17%, a brief bounce and then lost 50%.

The Austarlian market has turned no more than one day out of the exact turn dates in 1930 so far this year.

Down into at least June 25th and maybe out as far as July 12, up into late August, then down to a final low or either July 5 or 8 2013.

By: garyw

garyw — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 02:05:28 +0000

The thing that impressed me the most is when you said “I don’t know”.
most advisors would be very sure even if they are not.Honesty is important.

By: Frank

Frank — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 01:54:09 +0000

I think you are full of it and there is no way W. D. Gann would be projecting higher prices. I’ll make you a bet. You’ll see the low of 6400 reached last year broken by the end of the year.