* Please comment on the video at the bottom of the page *
In the aftermath of one of the seven greatest bear markets in Stocks since 1886, our bull market advance is tracking almost exactly the velocity of the advances which took place in 5 of the 7 precedents.
On this basis, the projection for what is to take place from here is easily observed.
In this video, we show the projections in the aftermath of the 1903, 1907, 1920, 1932, 1938, 1974 and 2002 bear markets.
Thus far, our tracking these projections have us profitably on the long side of the market.
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Mon, Aug 31, 2009
August 31st, 2009 at 3:57 pm
Excellent information. Better and more complete than I’ve seen elsewhere. From the past email, did you stop out your short sell?
dh
August 31st, 2009 at 3:59 pm
The video started then stopped at the date 1932
August 31st, 2009 at 4:46 pm
Thank you for stock market and commodities update. I know that it is difficult to forecast, but back in June/July you were forecasting a possible sharp decline (major correction imminent). This did not happen and the market headed up in the opposite direction. Are you still expecting a sharp decline at a later stage? How long is the “normal second leg up” ? Can this be forecasted with reasonable accuracy?
Regards,
John
August 31st, 2009 at 5:20 pm
should I be seeing more charts than just the initial one for current day S&P? the speaker is saying ” you can see…..” but I cannot see as we are looking at a current chart , not the one he is speaking about.
August 31st, 2009 at 5:54 pm
I’ll start by saying one thing. You can’t get out of a debt problem by taking on more debt. In the short term, maybe, but in the end it is going to be 10 times worse.
I am amazed…(as I think you are too) that the retracement on the first leg up up after the March low was only about 25%…(this is the S&P I am talking about).
If this is supposed to be the biggest pull back since the great depression of the 30’s and as you had said that on average the retracement on the first leg up after a ‘crash’ is 60% then this market would have to go down in history as having the only ‘V’ shaped recovery.
I assume you would be familiar with the views of Harry S. Dent?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOVv_BATv6c
I would be interested to hear your opinion on that.
Kindest regards
Hil Smith
September 1st, 2009 at 2:15 am
Thank you for a very nice presentation, but (and this is a very big “BUT”. in your first chart showing were previous Bear market rallys found its endings I saw a cluster of dates all before the 1929 crash – 1904/1908 and 1921, the as you mentioned the 1933 was in a class of it self.
I wonder if you had taken the 1930 Bear market rally you would have arrived to a different conclusion?
I my world it would have been a better comparison, as the two crashes resembels one and other better. The might also be a question of a seasonal patten that you missed. I haven’t seen a crash like the October 2007 to March 2009 crash since the October 1929 crash.
Your comparing with the 1904-1908-1921-1974 was bull market corrections. I do think the 2003 rally was a part of this ongoing correction and therefore should not have been included, but that’s just my view.
This also leave me with a big questionmark regarding you reading in regards to the Nasdaq 100. No doubt that Nasdaq topped in October 2007 and crashed alongside all the other indicies, but the top i October 2007 was a top in a Bear market rally after the 2000 total collapse erasing about 78% of the Tech. Stock index.
Just a comment on your remark “We don’t know which inventions will come in the furture, that could send this index higher…”
I don’t think that any new invention will have and effect on this index valuation for a great many years. Take the Internet, break though in 1985, but the euphoria didn’t really take hold of the Nasdaq 100 Index before the mid 1990′ leaving a trial of about 10 years.
You might be right about gold, but I do have greath reservations about gold. Eventhough we have seen Quantitatvie easing to an extend never seen before, gold has barely moved… There have been a lot of talk about inflation, but credit destruction has outstriped the Central banks money creation by a long shot, telling me, that we migth a rally higher towards 1,050 or maybe even 1,150, but risks is more to the downside than the upside, and a rally should be used to exit gold.
Sorry for a long comment, but you covered a great deal in your presentation a I think that deserves to be taken serious
Best regards
Torben
September 1st, 2009 at 5:49 am
Want to sign up for one month at 67 with 30 day trial offer. tried to do so but cart kept coming up empty.
you have my billing info.Pls start subscription asap and send first report
tks James Crossett
September 1st, 2009 at 9:48 am
Dear Gann Global,
I admit it I was wrong, LOL btw a reason for that is I listed to a friend of mine who is supposed to be a Gann Guru in NY, he is but the moral of the story listen to your gut.
However you may want to look at the Daily YM chart, Could 8/28/09 have been an Elliott Wave 5 Hi?
If so the market could tank.
My Updated forecast, Watch 9/4 it ends a 13 Week Cycle also watch October 26 for a significant market turn.
Hey even Vinstradamus can make a mistake but that serves me right for trusting in someone elses view more than my own.
Check out some cool free vids on Youtube.
http://www.youtube.com/user/vinstradamus
September 1st, 2009 at 9:52 am
The last sample videos I received the service was shorting the ES. I assume at some point you reversed your position on commodities and the ES. Not taking a cheap shot here but it proves the need for stop losses and how unimportant opinions really are if you have a trading edge.
My Best!
Randolph
September 1st, 2009 at 12:45 pm
Hi I have been watching your videos, they are fully packed with technical stuff, a good work. What I have been missing to see in the videos is the time projection. As you may know that Gann was known to call the market ie. price & time projection both. But in the videos I have noticed that only Price projections are given and the time projection convinently dropped. I understand it is not that easy to do time projection when mkt will top out OR bottom out. However if you can at least let the users know, the tentative week by which you feel the mkt should top out OR bottom out that should be fine.
Keep up the good work!!
Regards,
September 1st, 2009 at 10:17 pm
I doubt it if the stock market can go beyond mid-October as we are
due for a crash(ette) 10-15% before that . After that it will
continue down hill through 2010, and will take the the March/09 low .
A new bull market will start on the ruins in early 2011 .
Regards-TM…………….