Register Now for the Live Webinar Friday April 23

While registration for this webinar will not require you to pay a dime, content of this nature which is provided to our paying members requires a $97 monthly subscription… i.e. it will not be a watered down, sales-pitch riddled presentation.  I urge you to register to attend, or receive the recording.

• DATE: Friday April 23, 2010
• TIME: 3:00 p.m. Pacific time (6:00 p.m. Eastern)
• REGISTRATION LINK: Click here to register now for the webinar
• RECORDING LINK: Click here to register and receive the recording

(You must register to view this presentation… it takes less 40 seconds to register)

What’s in this video about W.D. Gann?

After 50 years on Wall Street, legendary trader and investor W.D. Gann revealed what he considered to be his most important discovery…the “Master Time Factor”.

Gann was the greatest market historian of his day during a career on Wall Street spanning between 1900-1956.

Gann said, “If I have the (historical) data, I can tell by the study of (past) cycles when a certain event will occur in the future.”

That’s the key!… Having the historical data.

In this new video, I give you details about Gann’s discovery and the time sensitive application it has for what is currently taking place in our markets.

Gann called the most important cycle (60-year cycle), the “Great Cycle”.  As of March 30th the overall commodity board entered an extremely bullish portion of this cycle.

As you will see in this video presentation, this “Great Cycle” has been dictating and dominating what has taken place over the past decade during one of the great wealth building periods of all time.

A key focus of this video is to underscore some of the key features alerting us to the likelihood we continue to be in a unique period for profit opportunities.

If you were following our videos in January 2010, you are no doubt aware the precious metals and energy markets have been dutifully following our forecast based upon the 60-year cycle.

I need to bring you up to date on how we are tracking this cycle and will do so by conducting an exclusive complimentary webinar this coming Wednesday.

COMPLIMENTARY WEBINAR DETAILS

Note: While registration for this webinar will not require you to pay a dime, content of this nature which is provided to our paying members requires a $97 monthly subscription… i.e. it will not be a watered down, sales-pitch riddled presentation.  I urge you to register to attend, or receive the recording.

• DATE: Friday April 23, 2010
• TIME: 3:00 p.m. Pacific time (6:00 p.m. Eastern)
• REGISTRATION LINK: Click here to register now for the webinar
• RECORDING LINK: Click here to register and receive the recording

(You must register to view this presentation… it takes less 40 seconds to register)

When you joined the Complete Forecasting and Trading Package, I promised a premium Subscriber Only webinar as a bonus.

This webinar was presented live on Tuesday, March 9, and this is the recording.

Typically, I schedule webinars when there is important information I need to convey which will help equip subscribers to maximize a current market opportunity.  One of the advantages of the 1 hour and 15 minute format is that it gives me the ability to cover a lot of information and marshal all of the evidence leading me to believe a market or markets will experience a major move.

Over the past several months, I have presented a tremendous amount of research as it relates to our extremely bullish posture in overall commodity prices.  In this webinar, I present all of what I believe adds up to a compelling argument for what is to take place.

If I am correct in my forecast for a continued aggressive leg up in commodity prices, the equally critical subject question I will be covering in the webinar will be the trading tactics to maximize profits. At present we are holding what I would term “core positions”.  I look at key price levels and price patterns I believe will provide additional buying opportunities.  If all goes according to plan, we have a lot further to go to the upside and there are some logical price points at which we can pyramid our positions.

In short, if you are currently participating on the long side of these markets, or are looking to do so, you do not want to miss this presentation.

* Please comment on the video at the bottom of the page *

In light of the dramatic reversal higher on April 29th and 30th after experiencing a measured correction, the Soybeans continue to replicate the price curve which occurred during the 60-year cycle in 1949.

In this video, we look at the geometry of the current advance and the probability price will advance to the 1350 level before the current leg up is complete.

Please leave your feedback on the bottom of this page.

Subscription Service Package Options

Financial Forecasting Package – $47 per month

Commodity Forecasting Package – $67 per month

Complete Forecasting Package (Financial & Commodity Markets) – $97 per month

* Please comment on the video at the bottom of the page *

Historic Commodity Deflationary Declines

Using the Research Engine, we are able to look at the various historic precedents of historic deflations similar to what we have seen in our market; however, given that this has been the greatest commodity decline in history, and the fact that there is variability on how previous historic deflationary declines occurred, it is important to note that the 200 year history, while it seems like a long period of time, does not give us many reference points since we are looking at something and dealing with something that we have really only seen a handful of times in history.

We do have some limitation, and I say that to maintain a sober outlook in the market. I want to make sure that when I make recommendations to you that it is based upon probabilities; it is based upon history repeating. There are times when we are simply lost in the markets, and I don’t view that as a negative in any way because it doesn’t make any difference what we think in the markets until we commit money. At the point at which a forecast converges with our trading signals, that is the point at which we commit money. We are in this to make money, not to be right in the markets.

Projections for Overall Commodities – Goldman Sachs – Commodity Index

With respect to what is taking place, we are going to be looking at the chart in the Goldman Sachs again, which is this chart (see video), and make a couple of observations.

We had overlaid what took place after the great deflationary declines in 1974, 1979, 1920, and 1980. In 1980, the initial liquidation, the major waterfall liquidation was followed by a bear market rally and a resumption of the bear market. This was also true of both the 1815 market and the 1864 deflation after the Civil War. There were three instances when declines similar to this, and there have only been six in history, so this is the seventh-when declines of this magnitude resulted in bear market rallies like occurred in 1980 and then resumption of the bear markets.

Now three other of the waterfall declines were followed by culmination points and bull markets. That occurred in 1974, 1949, and 1920. I am at this point aligning myself to the belief that we are going to be following a pattern where we’ve probably got a culmination in final low in overall commodity prices, and we are in the midst of what will be a first leg up in an overall long term bull market. You can see (see video) that in 1949, our most important cycle, the 60-year cycle, the retracement of the preceding decline initially was rather modest. After that first leg up there was a correction, and then the market moved to a new high and then continued up in a bull market.

There is an observation that I do want to make with respect to this, particularly the geometry of markets like this.  I would say the decline after the July 2, 2008 high is the equivalent of a nuclear bomb going off in the financial markets. The markets are catching their breath. That is what I believe is taking place right now. A tremendous amount of wealth destruction occurred, and the markets have to digest all that is taking place in the economy. No one has a perfect prescience as far as what is taking place, and so there is a lot of guesswork being done.

Writing Options: A Strategy in Response to Volatility Premiums

That is why conditions are choppy and why I still view this environment as ideal for strategic writing of options. I believe that we are in a trading environment. This was a huge historic downtrend leg down in overall commodity prices, and what we know from history is that typically we can see a move like this and yes, there is the law of action and reaction where there could be a violent reaction to a move down like that, but then the markets tend to, over time, slow down and quiet down.

By virtue of the volatility that we have had in the market, option premiums have been very high, and we have a premium advisory service called The Strategist where we have actually been writing call options. We have been selling options in the S&P, selling options in the silver, and that has been working out very well because the option premiums are so high because the fear factor in volatility premiums, which are eroding because of basically trading range conditions, and the time factor in the options is working in that favor. It just so happens to be a season where, I believe, option writing may be the preferred strategy, one of the best strategies. It is certainly not as exciting from the standpoint of risk – reward as other strategies in the market, but it is very valid, and it is one that we are utilizing in The Strategist service.

Commodity Market Trend Continues to Point Higher

That being said, in terms of expectation as far for commodities, at this point in time we do believe that the trend is going to be up, but the carrying charge premiums are really high, so that diminishes rates of return on potential longs in many of the commodities, particularly in the energy complex. That diminishes rates of return, so there are certain factors that in a sense inhibit the ability for the markets to move significantly and yield high rates of return; I should say multiples of risk reward.

We want to obviously be approaching the market with the right mindset based upon where the market is historically, and so I believe we are in more of a trading type situation and will continue to be so.