After 50 years on Wall Street, legendary trader and investor WD Gann revealed what he considered to be his most important discovery…the “Master Time Factor”.

In this video, I talk about WD Gann, his discovery, and the time sensitive application it has for what is taking place in our markets.  Gann called the 60-year cycle the “Great Cycle”.

As you are aware if you’ve been tuning into our publications this past month, we entered an extremely bullish portion of this cycle in overall commodity prices as of March 30th.

As you will see, this cycle has been dictating and dominating what has been one of the great wealth building periods in history since we established the historic low in overall commodity prices on July 13, 1999.

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In video #1 sent earlier today, I provided the rationale behind my projection for an aggressive advance in overall commodity prices, I then moved into a discussion of the historic position in the grain and soybean complexes which are in the most over-sold markets on the board.

In this NEW Video #2, I move my analysis into the precious metals and energy market as well as the stock market and dollar index.  I have said it before and it bears repeating, “All of these markets are moving in tandem and playing to the same beat during this portion of the market cycle”.

That being said, the gold and silver are great candidates for experiencing significantly higher prices.  The “corrections” we experienced in both the gold and silver into the February lows demonstrated the same DNA of past historic corrections.  The completion of these corrections should be placing these markets in very bullish positions at this time.

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We’re getting down to the wire…this is the final Subscriber Caliber Update Video that will be posted before enrollment begins for our most popular service, the Complete Forecasting and Trading Package.

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Date Enrollment Begins: Wednesday, November 18, 2009
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Complimentary Access to a Premium Series of Subscriber Webinars: Periodically we conduct Premium Webinars for “Subscribers Only” at a cost of $297.  If you join me on this special offer, I’ll give you access to the next LIVE webinar presentation and the recording. The webinar will take place within next three weeks. (A $297 value).

Quick Start Video Series ($297 value):

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The Essential Course: A 66-lesson guide that shows you how our historic forecasting methods work, and why we do what we do ($197 value)

Subscriber Caliber Video Update #2

This video series is a very close representation of our High Content Report publication. In fact, paying subscribers are receiving almost exactly the same video tonight. This video does not contain any new trades, however, the nature of the High Content Reports is to communicate the rationale behind our trade actions, as well as our strategy in approaching certain markets.

The High Content Report also communicates the valuable forecasts and projections for the markets we are “chasing,” as we attempt to capitalize on major moves at key turning points.

LIMITED OFFER DETAILS

Date Enrollment Begins: Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Time: 6:00 a.m. Pacific Time (9:00 a.m. Eastern)\
Limited Time: We will discontinue special pricing for this service 7 days after the doors open.
Price: The already discounted package rate of $291 per quarter is being reduced to $198 per quarter for this limited special offer… No Refunds will be issued for the 1st Quarter of Service — Serious Subscribers Only.
Availability Notification: You will receive an email letting you know the doors are open for this special offer on Wednesday morning at 6:00 a.m. Pacific (9:00 a.m. Eastern).

SPECIAL BONUSES

Complimentary Access to a Premium Series of Subscriber Webinars: Periodically we conduct Premium Webinars for “Subscribers Only” at a cost of $297.  If you join me on this special offer, I’ll give you access to the next LIVE webinar presentation and the recording. The webinar will take place within next three weeks. (A $297 value).

Quick Start Video Series ($297 value):

• Video 1: Understanding Our Charts and Tables (60-min)
• Video 2: Trading Patterns and Trading Rules (67-min)
• Video 3: Understanding Entry and Exit Orders (24 minutes)
• Chart Codes Reference Guide PDF

The Essential Course: A 66-lesson guide that shows you how our historic forecasting methods work, and why we do what we do ($197 value)

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While this 13-minute video is jam-packed with valuable information, it is only a PREVIEW of the “Full Presentation” I’ll be making during my upcoming complimentary live webinar.

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Please accept my invitation to view this new video, and register for the webinar.

I have scheduled a complimentary live webinar where I am going to provide forecasts in the Stock Market, Commodity prices (including Agricultural markets) and Gold market based upon our key historic precedents.

By attending, you will be privy to “paid quality content” very similar to what our current subscribers are getting.

By virtue of having learned the lessons history teaches, lessons which our competitors could not have learned in the absence of investing 20,000 hours computerizing the historic record, you can look over my shoulder at information available nowhere else.  I consider this to be a huge competitive advantage.

The 60-year “Boom and Bust” cycle continues to dictate the trade in our financial markets. Our projections have determined the most bullish portion of this cycle is on the horizon. Now is the time to prepare yourself for this next phase of the cycle as we approach 2010.

This New “Sneak Preview” video gives you insight into:

• The magnitude of the upcoming correction in the Overall Stock Market
• The next major wealth building opportunity in stocks and commodities
• The potential for Gold to continue its bull market into new all-time highs

I also show you exactly what our advisory service has been telling subscribers with regard to where the markets were headed as this 60-year Boom and Bust Cycle unfolded:

• One month after the Stock Market panic had culminated on March 6th
• When the final low in commodity prices coincided almost exactly with a final low in the Stock Market

Webinar Replay: Watch the full length webinar replay

In March of this year, we completed the greatest wealth destruction cycle in the shortest period of time in U.S. financial history!

The Damage:  S&P 500 DOWN 58% –  Overall Commodity and Natural Resource prices DOWN 66% (on average). If you have been following our forecasts over the past year, you are aware we had forecasted the timing of both the boom and the bust portions of this cycle. Based upon the historic parallels, most notably after the 1920 and 1948 busts, culmination lows are projected to now be in place in both Stocks and Commodities.

Does this mean you chase after markets which have already advanced 39% off their lows based upon the indices?

Not if you are being guided by the historic record as it relates to other bust cycles.

The market technician and forecaster W.D. Gann stated it this way.

“After a final low is established and the 1st advance takes place, markets experience secondary corrections into higher bottoms. It is at the completion of these secondary corrections we are provided with the lowest risk opportunities to enter long investment and speculative positions.”

So, based on Gann’s statement, at the completion of the current rallies in the Stock Market and individual commodity markets, we should expect a major “secondary correction.” This correction would provide us with “the lowest risk buying opportunity,” as Gann put it.

At present we are apprising subscribers to our services of the historic precedents which relate to what should take place from this point forward. It is our desire to help subscribers maximize their profits in entering long positions once these corrections are complete.

What the Future Holds

Now what I want to talk to you about is the future. As you know, no one is always right. Successful investing and speculation is based upon probabilities. I am in the business of assessing the probabilities for market movement based upon history. I’m a market historian and psychologist. That’s my expertise. As far as I know, we have the most extensive price database in the world.

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I invite you to attend this complimentary webinar, look at the research, and you can make your own determination. I will provide you with a brief presentation in which I lay out a road map of where we have come from and the intermediate forecast of what is to take place.

In light of the historic position we find ourselves in, I have been working tirelessly to produce and present this historic research in order to help subscribers make informed decisions in anticipation of a major financial commitment on the long side of Stocks and Commodities once a major correction takes place.

By attending this complimentary webinar, not only will you learn why we told subscribers to sell out…and enter short positions in the expectation of a crash… But you will gain new perspective, allowing you to see the forest through the trees. I will go into detail regarding the lowest risk and highest probability target buying zone for stocks and commodities, showing you exactly what our subscribers are seeing.

Update: Webinar offer has expired.

In looking at the nearest futures chart in the soybeans, this is the daily chart, you’ll notice, if you’ve seen our previous videos, that we have four historic precedents which were our closest fitting precedents as far as this overall pattern is concerned.

If you’ve not seen any of our previous videos I recommend that you go back to some of the previous videos over the last week-and-a-half, to get up to speed on what exactly we have been saying.

This is a drama that is unfolding and I’m giving you new information that will build on that foundation.

We have four precedents, but you’ll notice  (see the video) that the 1949 angle of ascent I have adjusted to a more acute angle. In other words, a more aggressive potential move up in our market.

The velocity, or rate of gain in the soybeans is following the 1974 and 1949 markets. The 2005 and 1978 markets were more subdued in terms of advances.

With respect to 1949 I’ve adjusted the angle of ascent to reflect the revised May 1949 low as the starting point in the cash advance. This provides additional weight to a potentially more aggressive advance in line with the 1974 precedent.

I’m going to look at the charts and tell you why I’ve adjusted this angle as being more acute. I’m going to be going through my reasoning there as we get through this video.

The other thing I want to point out before getting there is that in 1976, we’ve pointed that out as one of the key closest fits in soybean oil and at the same time that soybean oil was experiencing a very significant advance in 1976, the soybeans also advanced 60% in tandem with the bean oil.

If we have the soybeans and bean oil following the DNA of the 1976 market then that is also an aggressive count for us.

This is a cash chart of the soybeans. I’ve not shown this recently but I want to point out that the cash price has exceeded the January 9th high by 31½¢. Unlike the futures this was a decisive breakout so as we drop down to the futures in the May contract we only exceeded the highs by four cents whereas in the cash we exceeded it by 31½¢.

The odds are favoring that we are in a second leg up in a bull market, and this is a very shallow second leg by any measure as far as historic legs up are concerned. We would not expect this second leg to be complete.

In the soybean oil, to reiterate, we have not exceeded that January high so we are still awaiting that confirmation of the breakout in the soybeans; On April 22 I stated “The probability for the bean oil following the 1976 vs. 1978 precedent was perhaps 50%,” so we felt that it would either follow this angle of ascent or this angle of ascent and that would have dramatic implications on our long call option positions.

In light of our more refined research I’ve now replaced this at 65/35 so what I will be going through in this update has increased the probability that we’re going to follow this more acute angle. This weighs the odds more favorably toward our greater profit objectives.

In looking at the soybeans, before I look at the May soybean oil, we do have six price patterns that result in actual specific trade recommendations.

We’re in the process where we could experience a buy signal in the soybeans based upon what we call Profit Center #4 which is a breakout retracement. I’m not going to go into the details of that right now but that is something that we apprise our subscribers of with regard to specifics of buy recommendations.

In looking at the May soybeans, I want to note the April 18th comment that I made the day after the April 17th high. I said we ran the buy stops above the January high at 1269, that was the January 12th, followed by an immediate reversal lower, given the overbuy condition of the market this is not surprising.

Technically, it would be ideal to experience a minor correction of perhaps 6% at this point in time and that would result in a decline of 64¢ to 1009. I’m not saying that this is going to happen, only that if it does it would be healthy in correcting the overbought condition.

At the same time, it would in no way disqualify us from potentially being in a very strong position with an expectation for a continued runaway advance.

As it turns out we did drop down to 1012¾ experiencing a two-day 5.7% decline so we may have experienced the completion of a minor correction followed by a resumption of the uptrend.

An advance to the new high above 1073 would issue a number for breakout retracement buy signal. If we are in the midst of a classic runaway advance this could result in immediate follow through to the upside. Regardless, it would be a very favorable sign for the market especially if the bean oil confirms the breakout.

We are very aggressively long and in profitable positions in the soybean oil futures and call option positions. By virtue of the extent of this advance we are not looking to add to positions on the basis of this buy signal because we are in the midst of this leg up.

When we are making purchases we want to buy close to the turning point, close to the lows, which is what we did. We do add to positions on the way up, and we have, but now the leg up is maturing and while this buy signal may generate a profitable trade, we basically have the boats loaded as far as our overall position is concerned.

In dropping down to the May bean oil, again, we haven’t exceeded the January 7th high. I say this, in runaway legs up in bull markets the minor corrections typically last between one and four days. If we advance to a new high for the move we would continue to conform to historic runaway moves to the upside.

In the soybeans we experienced a two-day selloff; in the soybean oil a three-day sell off, and it’s going to be interesting to see if we experience this breakout above what is a minor double-top high at this point in time.

We are conforming to what would be a classic pattern of a runaway advance. As long as they continue to conform to that then we are potentially in a very strong position. But if we see the market sell-off and decline into the 5th or 6th day, in other words, if we were to decline beneath this 35.23 at this point in time, before exceeding the 37.37 the probabilities would diminish that we are in as aggressive of a position in the market as I hope that we are.

I want to give you the rationale and give you the update on the 1949 market because that is the 60-year cycle. You’ll note here that these are the four closest precedents in history to our market because each of these advances came on the heels of the greatest deflationary declines in history in soybeans since 1915.

Ours being in that category. Our market fits the DNA of these markets. In 1949, this is the most important date to consider because it’s a 60-year cycle, master time factor cycle.

If you haven’t gone on our Web site and looked at the Essential Course in the Master Time Factor, I want to encourage you to do so. This is a very key element to what we do.

The market is following incredibly, and it’s remarkable how closely our market is following the 1948 precedent. Overall commodity prices, there was a boom and bust cycle at that point in time and that is what we’ve experienced in commodity prices ourselves, and almost on the exact same dates 60 years after the 1948-49 precedent.

This is a very key precedent for us and what we have here is the adjusted angle of ascent, from May 31, 1949 to August 25, 1949 we advanced 62% in three months and 23 days. That is a very aggressive move.

This is the cash price in the soybeans back in 1949 into the high on August 25, 1949. It’s important that I tell that the high for soybeans was made at 441 in 1948, then we saw this huge decline – I should have shown this chart to you – into what was a major low on February 8, 1949.

From there the market experienced this zigzag pattern and on May 31st the market ran away.

In our research these declines here, which were obviously corrections in what was a rather short-lived run to the upside to the 1949 high, these were minor corrections but they didn’t last as long as a month. Classically a correction has to last at least a month to be catalogued as a genuine correction.

I believe under the circumstances, because of the zigzag pattern, that it is valid for us to make the projections in our market for this advance off the May 31st, which was the 3rd higher bottom, as opposed to making our projections off the February 8th low into the August 25th high.

The bottom line is that if we expect our market to advance similarly off our recent low in March 6th off a similar low of February 8th then obviously the angle of ascent is going to be less than the angle of ascent than if we had made our calculations off the May 31st low to the August 1949 high.

What I did in looking back at the soybeans is, we had had an angle of ascent in 1949 on our soybean projections that basically projected out to here; the angle moved out to here. You can look at our previous videos and see that because we were making the projection off the February low into the final high.

Now we’ve adjusted that from the May low which means that I believe we’re in a very aggressive position. By the way, that is a very valid calculation. Sometimes we miss things until we dig in and look at it again and say, “Hey, wait a minute.”

As in 1949, if we put this as the equivalent February low and then we saw the zigzag in 1949 to the higher bottom, and then the aggressive move like 1949, that’s where we get that calculation.

It is valid, I believe. It reflects a valid interpretation of the price pattern and that there needs to be work done at the lows. Once the work was done and the higher bottom was in place, off she went in 1949.

That is one of the reasons that I’m more bullish today than I was several days ago. Does that mean that this is going to play out according to plan? That I don’t know but I like the odds.

It’s always probabilities and odds. It is a 65% probability that we’re going to be the more aggressive, and 35% probability that we’re going to be the less aggressive. That’s assuming that we’re going to move up which I believe we are going to continue to do.

In looking at the 1973 & 1974, I wanted to show you the patterns because these are the patterns we experienced after the implosion in price, the bust. We experienced a rather modest advance off the 1973 lows, secondary decline into a higher bottom in 1974, and then we saw this run to the upside.

That’s one of our precedents. We expect that our market is in a similar position as occurred after the May 6, 1974 low. Same as the case in 1978; implosion in price and one of the great deflations in the history of the soybean market. The initial modest advance, secondary correction, we should be in this leg to the upside based upon the 1977-78 precedent.

Lastly, looking at the 2005 precedent, here again, price implosion, modest advance, secondary correction, and then we saw this very quick surge into the 2005 high, and ultimately into the June 24th high.

This is the pattern that appears to be playing out in our market and it’s been incredibly close ever since the lows were established in December. We’ve been looking at these patterns and they have accommodated us very well.

We would expect that based upon that the market is going to continue to conform to these patterns, and if it does so we are holding call option positions which should yield a 10:1 risk/reward in the July options. That is if we have the more aggressive of our projections.

The less aggressive is going to be about a 2½ to 3 times risk/reward which is credible but obviously we’re keeping our fingers crossed for the 10:1. That would be a home run situation.

* Please comment on the video at the bottom of the page *

The soybean oil nearest futures chart shows a recent advance  into the April 16th high of 37.37. This advance fell just short of the January 7th high of 37.55.

One of the observations that we’ve had with this market is that the ideal was that we would follow this 1976 precedent, and if so, the market would experience a very dramatic advance. In this case, in 1976 it was a 57% advance in one month and 22 days.

The DNA in our market is startling in how close it is to this particular precedent, but the 1978 precedent must also be given weight as a possibility.

Subscribers Participating in Profitable Options Positions

You can see that the angle of ascent is much less in 1978. Our subscribers have long call option positions in the July soybean call options which have more than doubled, they’re up about 150% from where we entered back in late March.

However, in terms of risk/reward, if we were to replicate this 1976 advance and basing it on the recent highs we experienced about halfway to that destination site, then those options are going to result in risk/rewards of at least 10:1 to 11:1 and that is, needless to say, the type of option play, I hope as a listener that that is the type of option play that really makes sense when you have that kind of a prospect for that kind of return.

We did have that going in, so the market has been following this 1976 ideally precedent, or 1978, but we have yet to see what the tail of the tape is going to be in the end.

Current observation here: in looking at this prospective leg up, we have what we believe is a first leg up into the January high, a correction, and this has started a second leg up in a bull market.

As I’ve mentioned in previous reports, we have all ready exceeded this January high in the soybeans so we are anticipating that the soybeans are going to follow suit.

In looking at legs up in the history if the soybeans, this is what we observe. If this is a second leg up in a bull market, a current advance into the April 16th high is very young.

At one month, zero days, it ranks as the 45th shortest out of 47 legs up since futures trading began in 1951. In other words, there have only been two legs; only four percent of the time have there ever been legs that are shorter than this. The probability is greatly in favor that we have not run out time to the upside and that we are going to continue higher if this is a second leg up.

In looking at the 1976 precedent, the actual chart of the 1976 July soybean oil (see video) the contract move was 54% in one month and 21 days. You can see what the angle of ascent was when it finally topped out on July 15th.

This represents the angle of ascent on our chart, so we move from this chart and actually go ahead and put it right on our daily chart (see video).

The contract move was 53%. The nearest futures move 57%, and the contract 53%.

You can see that the market, at times, was above the angle of ascent and dipped below it, rallied to it, significant dip below it, stayed under it, but then finally did culminate on July 15th (see the chart in the video).

We are beneath this angle of ascent right now and it remains to be seen whether we are going to play catch up and move up to this angle.

You can see (in the video) the ascent is very steep so we would have to play some significant catch up here, and when you have a move up of 57% one month, 22 days, that lends itself perfectly to call option positions which are a wasting asset because of the time frame.

We have our expiration dates on this July option out to June 26th so we have plenty of time for this particular scenario to play out.

Patterns of Bull Market Corrections

The other thing that I’ll just point out quickly on this chart is you can see there were minor corrections. This was a very aggressive move but very significant minor corrections, and that is even in the most aggressive bull markets in any commodity. These are really pretty standard type moves.

The first minor decline was 7.9% in four days. We had a 12% decline in three days and that is a little more significant than is typical during aggressive moves like that, like this particular move.

In June to July 1st we had a three day move, and then a single day move before the push to final tops. The reason I bring that out is in runaway configurations markets, and we’ve looked at every runaway in history in the soybeans, and what we do know is that approximately 95% of the minor corrections during runaway advances, and I believe there has been about 36 minor corrections since 1936, 95% of them do not exceed 8%.

This is actually an aberration to have 12%, but typically they run between five and eight percent. That would be very typical. That would set some kind of expectation for us in our market.

Will Soybean Oil Low Hold?

In looking at the May soybean oil, during this run up we did experience a 204 point correction which was six percent, and into today, Tuesday, we declined 214 points on the electronic session which is 5.8% so we have a couple of minor corrections here.

Is this low in the bean oil going to hold? That’s going to be what we are going to find out in the next couple of days. Actually, this is the 3rd day off the high so the 4th day would be Wednesday and that would be the limit of what one would expect if we were going to be in a very aggressive position.

In terms of at least a minor signal, I’d have to say that if we drop below the day’s lows, drop into the 34 range after the 4th day, then evidence is going to start to weigh that we may be following the 1978 precedent in that angle of ascent.

Here are a couple of the observations that I want to make. Unlike the May soybeans, we did not exceed the January 7th high.

I don’t view this bearish divergence as negative over the intermediate term, although over the next several trading days it could indicate that we will see a continued minor correction of approximately 6%.

That was on the 18th, so we were expecting the possibility of replicating this 6% correction, and in fact, we almost did that, 5.8%.

If this takes place there will be even more buy stops building above what would then be even greater overhead resistance above the highs at 37.81 and 37.37, we’ll have a “double-top” and there are going to be stops building above that level.

Over this last week the crude oil during this move down has declined 20% since March 26th. In the face of this the soybean complex has been holding up remarkably well so I do view that as a positive.

New Highs Breaking Out Above Double Top Would Signal Confirmation of Bull Market

The 1976 I mentioned, longest minor correction was four trading days so we’ll see if we hold to that pattern and not exceed four days from any high for the move.

Given the current minor correction off the 37.37 high, there will be a greater number of buy stops building above the “double-top.”

I believe an advance above these highs will result in a dramatic confirmation we are in a second leg up in an overall bull market. Let me add, I believe that that would indicate that the probabilities would increase even more that we are in a very strong position in this market.

If all we are able to muster is a minor correction followed by a push into new highs above this “double-top,” I believe that that is going to indicate that the market is in a very strong position.

Now, in the soybeans – this is the May contract – we exceeded the January high at 1069 rallying to 1073 so we ran buy stops above the highs. Those would have been those that were short the market and obviously, when you see old highs exceeded on the order of this January 2nd high you can always be assured that there is a significant number of buy stops for those that are on the short side and are losing money and cover their short positions on the rally to new highs.

Also, there are those that buy breakouts into new highs, this would be technicians, and in this case this was a bull trap by pushing into new highs and then immediately reversing lower.

As of today’s trade we did decline on the evening session to 1012 to the downside. If we reassert ourselves and press above the 1073 having all ready exceeded the January 12th high one time, a second time into new highs is going to be a very favorable indication for more upside.

We should, in the next several days, see whatever evidence we need as to whether this is going to continue to conform to 1976 or a more modest 1978.

If the 1978 precedent plays out, then in our options positions we’re going to see maybe about 2 ½ times on our initial premium that we had purchased on the options. That’s not a bad return. It’s not a homerun situation like an 11:1 that I’m hoping will take place.

I’d say we probably have a 50/50 probability either way. Fifty percent probability to be either following the 1976, or 50% following the 1978. Frankly, I just don’t know which one it is going to follow but the prospect of following 1976 is very exciting.

* Please comment on the video at the bottom of the page *

It has been my expectation the Soybeans and Soybean Oil would replicate the advances which took place after the other greatest declines in history similar to the 55% implosion we experienced after the July 2008 high.

In this video, we continue to track the progress in our markets relative to the historic precedents of:

• 1949
• 1974
• 1976
• 1978
• 2005

The parallels continue to be remarkable to these historic bull market precedents. Watch this new video to see what our research and forecast say about the Soybean Complex.

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