As discussed in Tuesday night’s webinar, I have our subscribers on “Red Alert” for potential aggressive trade recommendations.

I’m making these “subscriber-caliber” video updates for a limited time. If you conclude our service will be useful in guiding your personal financial decisions, and helping you build wealth, then I encourage you to try the Complete Forecasting and Trading Package when enrollment begins.

So, watch the video and forward this to friends and family who have a vested interest in the financial markets.

The four comparable markets, and we’ve shown this before, were the sugar in 1974, silver in 1980, cotton in 1864, and corn in 1864. Those four markets declined in excess of 71% in price. We are looking at what occurred after those lows were in place during those four markets to look at what potentially could be the DNA in our market and how our market could play out.

* Please comment on the video at the bottom of the page *

You can see that the silver, cotton, and corn all experienced very comparable rallies (the orange lines) from the standpoint of length of time from their lows to what were bear market rally highs. The red points mean a red light. That means they started the next leg down in an overall bear market. The declines which occurred after these target points all resulted in declines to new bear market lows beneath what would be the December 19th low at 32.40 basis the nearest futures.

We are in a bear market. This is a first leg down. These target points are the first bear market rallies after the first leg down, and all of these were followed by legs down in a continued bear market. We’ve never had a bull market on the order of crude oil in any commodity that’s been completed after a single leg to the downside. I cannot emphasize this enough. When you see this kind of velocity of deflation like in the crude oil, you don’t turn around on a dime. We had a seven-year bull market in the crude oil. Here we’ve had a five-month bear market leg down, and we’re not just going to finish the bear market in five months, and then off we go on another bull market that previously was seven years in the making.

It just has never happened historically, so we would have to literally rewrite 220 years of U.S. financial history. The probabilities are just that that’s highly unlikely. We are statisticians and look at history because that represents human nature and human nature in action. Yes, we’re going through some very difficult times financially, but believe me, the United States has been through some very critical things. We’ve been through the Civil War, we’ve been through World War I, we’ve been through the Great Depression, and we’ve been through World War II, so these are huge economic dislocations which have occurred and do occur throughout world history. We’re in the middle of one of those things right now.

All that to say that our markets are not confounding us, and they’re not a mystery as to what’s taking place because we have a great deal of history in what’s taken place. This is one of those things that we’re saying, “This is what’s happened after commodities declined on the order of what we’ve seen.”