Here at Gann Global we’re dedicated to discerning when the “exceptional” will take place in the financial and commodity markets as opposed to the mundane. The serious rewards in trading or investing are made during the major runs up and down following accumulation and distribution.

This “Video Preview” gives  you insight into:

• Why we have subscribers on “Red Alert” for potential high-reward opportunities.
• Why we’ve patiently waited for projected cycles and price patterns to run their course in the agricultural market.
• If our projections are correct, we’re standing on the threshold of some major advances.
• Why the bearish crop report this week has provided us with a huge assist.
• The fact our current trade action in the agricultural commodities leads us to believe we are on the threshold of potentially extraordinary moves, based on our extensive study of history.
• The incredible parallel between the trade action we’re experiencing in the CRB Commodity Index, and what took place 60 years ago.

While this 10-minute video is filled with valuable information, it is only a PREVIEW of the “Full Presentation”

Click Here to View the Video Recording of the Full Webinar Presentation (Recorded January 19, 2010)

]]> http://www.gannglobal.com/webinar-preview-commodities-explosive-position/feed/ 1 http://www.gannglobal.com/commodity-forecast-grain-soybean-complexes-strong-positions/ http://www.gannglobal.com/commodity-forecast-grain-soybean-complexes-strong-positions/#comments Sun, 15 Nov 2009 21:13:21 +0000 msymonds http://www.gannglobal.com/?p=1560

Subscriber Caliber Video Update #1

This video series is a replication of our High Content Report publication. Here are descriptions of the publications included in the package that will be available for a limited time starting Wednesday, Nov 18…

The Complete Forecasting Package is comprised of 4 publications.  Two of these fall in the category or “Trading Publications” and the other two are “Forecasting Publications.”

TRADING PUBLICATIONS

HIGH CONTENT REPORTS: Video reports sent as needed.  When we are chasing current or potential opportunities, we communicate the urgent and non urgent research to you via the High Content Report.

POSITION TRADERS HOTLINE: The Position Traders Hotline is sent on an as-needed basis.  If a trade action needs to be communicated to you, we will send it to you via the Position Traders Hotline first.  This is typically accompanied by a High Content Report explaining the rationale behind the trade action.

FORECASTING PUBLICATIONS

PAST PRESENT FUTURES NEWSLETTER: (Monthly) Our flagship newsletter provides you with the “Big Picture” of what is taking place across the financial board.

MARKET SCOPE UPDATE: Non-time sensitive forecasting, research and analysis for most U.S. markets.  For subscribers wanting to know our “take” on a particular market, this is your reference material.

LIMITED OFFER DETAILS

Date Enrollment Begins: Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Time: 6:00 a.m. Pacific Time (9:00 a.m. Eastern)\
Limited Time: We will discontinue special pricing for this service 7 days after the doors open.
Price: The already discounted package rate of $291 per quarter is being reduced to $198 per quarter for this limited special offer… No Refunds will be issued for the 1st Quarter of Service — Serious Subscribers Only.
Availability Notification: You will receive an email letting you know the doors are open for this special offer on Wednesday morning at 6:00 a.m. Pacific (9:00 a.m. Eastern).

SPECIAL BONUSES

Complimentary Access to a Premium Series of Subscriber Webinars: Periodically we conduct Premium Webinars for “Subscribers Only” at a cost of $297.  If you join me on this special offer, I’ll give you access to the next LIVE webinar presentation and the recording. The webinar will take place within next three weeks. (A $297 value).

Quick Start Video Series ($297 value):

• Video 1: Understanding Our Charts and Tables (60-min)
• Video 2: Trading Patterns and Trading Rules (67-min)
• Video 3: Understanding Entry and Exit Orders (24 minutes)
• Chart Codes Reference Guide PDF

The Essential Course: A 66-lesson guide that shows you how our historic forecasting methods work, and why we do what we do ($197 value)

Key Observations of Recent Trade Action in the Soybean Market

Thus far we have two measured corrections, two sell-offs; the first one , and the second 8.4% in six days.

Soybeans are really what I would call a classic market during very aggressive advances for experiencing minor corrections,  so we can be assured this 975¼ is a very key low which I believe at this point does need to hold, absolutely needs to hold, if we are in as aggressive of a position as I hope we are. That does remain to be seen.

The next favorable indication is that there was a minor buy signal on the break of the 978¼ low followed by the reversal higher. You can see that as of April 8th, we declined to 978¼. We just clipped that low by 3¢ the other day without follow through to the downside.

In light of the reversal to the upside that is a very good sign. It means that essentially there was a stop raid beneath that low which was followed by an immediate reversal. That’s always a good indication, particularly as I say here, very impressive reversal on Wednesday, April 29th with follow through today, the 30th.

We’ve got this follow through to the upside, and needless to say the shorts have a lot to think about at this point in time with respect to the implications should we exceed that 1076 high.

Looking at the July soybean oil, a number of observations. A break beneath 34.71 with follow through to the downside in the pit session would be problematic for our bullish stance in our long positions that we currently hold for subscribers.

If we are to replicate the more aggressive of our projections, I believe we must move higher from here. I like how we’re situated. Soybean oil is not experiencing the kind of percentage advance that we have in the soybeans over the last three to four days so in my estimation it will be playing catch-up.

As in the July contract in the soybeans, you can see that we have this lower top in the soybean oil so there is going to be a very significant number of buy stops building above that level.

Since I believe that we’re in a bull market in the soybean complex, I expect that those stops are going to be hit en route to a continued advance in what is a second leg up in a bull; the first leg up being off the December low, second leg off this March 16th low.

Dropping down to our next observation. The soybeans fractionally broke beneath the equivalent of the 34.71 low so that in the previous chart we broke this 978¼ in the soybeans, but you can see in the soybean oil we made a slightly higher bottom by .16 so we did not run the stops there.

If we were to break that 34.71 that would be problematic but I believe this is a bullish sign overall in taking these two contracts – the July contract in the soybean oil and the July contract in the soybeans – taking them in tandem. I like the near term trade here.

Looking at the nearest futures in the soybeans, these were our four closest fit projections in history; the primary one being the 60-year cycle in 1949. We dipped down to what would be the angles of ascent during 1978 and 2005. This surge is likely going to carry us higher if we’re right in the market so that we can track this 1949 market.

We have long July call option positions in the soybean oil which expire almost exactly when the projected 1949 advance would be complete. You can see how far we have gotten so far, and if we were to replicate this 1949 advance then we would have significantly further to go to the upside.

Is that going to happen? I don’t know but we’re still very early in terms of the time period of this leg up. Legs up do not complete in this as abbreviated of a time period as we’ve experienced so far to the upside.

I like our prospects to the upside. I like the technical condition of the market.

In the soybean oil, as a result of this recent sell-off we can dismiss the 1976 precedent as the precedent which is going to dictate trade.

The 1949, I experienced a comparable percentage advance. It was up 61%, it just took a longer period of time, but as I mentioned, since we’re holding call options, the 1949 market would top out, let’s say here. The same price objective as the 1976, actually a little bit more, but there is still the time left in our options.

If we were to see, for example, the July soybean oil advance to 46.00 then we would be experiencing a 12:1 risk/reward on our long positions that we’ve recommended for subscribers.

We’re also long futures positions and have a pretty significant position overall in this market so I believe that is justified. We’ve been adding two profitable positions, adding on the way up. At the end of this move it is going to be very interesting.

There is also going to be opportunity on the other side of the mountain. There is a lot of research that we’ll be giving subscribers with respect to that, as well.

I really like the prospects of this market particularly in light of the last couple of days of trade.

* Please comment on the video at the bottom of the page *

With regard to the Stock Market, additional evidence continues to be forthcoming as to whether the current advance is a bear market rally or whether we are in the midst of a 1st leg up in an overall bull market.

At this juncture, our research suggests the probability has moved to 65% with regard to the long-term trend in the Stock Market. In this video we talk about our bias, the rationale for why based upon the Great Depression precedent, and what the dangers are for placing bets on the Stock Market either speculative or investment at this time.

In observing the price formations and market geometry in the Soybean Complex, we have been observing the incredible similarity between the DNA in our markets and what occurred in 1976 and 1978. On this basis, we forecasted a potential dramatic leg up in the Soybean Complex which would exceed the “1st leg” highs on January 7, 2009, confirm we are in an overall bull market and meet one of our two objectives.

At this juncture, we are following the more aggressive of the historic parallels in 1976. In this video we update you on our most current analysis.

Service Package Options

Financial Forecasting Package – $47 per month

Commodity Forecasting Package – $67 per month

Complete Forecasting Package (Financial & Commodity Markets) – $97 per month

* Please comment on the video at the bottom of the page *

Here’s what I say with regard to what has taken place this last week-and-a-half. In eight trading days, the market has retraced 50% of the decline off the January 5th high.

Due to the abbreviated length of the leg down off the January high and the price point at which this market reversed to the upside breaking to the 665.70, I view the forecast of the near term direction of this market as being problematic.

In other words, I’m having trouble in fitting this situation into the historic precedent of the Great Depression. Additional trade will provide clarity so at this point I have to take a neutral approach in the stock market.

Obviously, there is going to continue to be tremendous volatility but we did expect the ideal that the market would push down to the 600 level. Ideally, into the second week of April, and the market did not accommodate that so now after a 29% decline in a relatively short period of time, we’ve seen the market spike up very significantly.

It’s going to be very interesting to see how this plays out. Additional trade will provide clarity, which is to say that we will get insight into what is taking place in this market, so right now, I would have to say, in terms of a trading type situation, I’m definitely neutral and watching very closely with regard to long-term ramifications that this has for overall forecast as to the length of this bear market.

* Please comment on the video at the bottom of the page *

We’ve experienced a very sharp decline in terms of velocity, and we’ve had five days where the market has done some backing and filling. That is actually a very healthy thing in that the market was getting a little ahead of itself, so profit taking and backing and filling is a very healthy process. Nothing goes down a straight line even though these are the greatest legs down in history.

These are the greatest legs down in history in the stock market (the red lines and target points on the lower right), and yet you do see that there is backing and filling on the way down, as one would expect. A couple of observations: other than the correction after the first leg decline on the 29th, all five bear market rallies were complete by February 7th.

Here’s our target zone (the red box). This was the last of the bear market rallies to complete (U 1930). You can see that we are well off that February 7th date, so the probabilities are very high, that this is a bear market with extremely high probabilities that the January 5th high is the high for this bear market leg.

The other side of the equation is if this market did continue to go higher and continued higher beyond the February 7th high, then the probabilities would go up that we have an important low in place. That being said, these target zones tell us a great deal about whether the market is conforming to historic norms because as soon as it stops doing that, then we have to say, “Okay, something else is going on here.”

But right now, this market is conforming beautifully to what we would expect for another leg to the downside. Now the other thing is, if the current decline has started another leg down, it is running pretty hot relative to the legs down during the Great Depression. That was what I said at the recent low, but now we’ve had five days of consolidation, so the market is in a healthier position here, healthier in advance of what we would expect to see as a breakdown into new lows below 797 with a break of the 737 low with follow-through to the downside.

At the 797 low, this is what we were telling subscribers. We have a buy pattern. If I was looking to go long, the reversal higher after breaking the 813.50 low by 16.50, which is what we did; we broke this 813.50, dropped down to 797 and ran into a ton of sell stops down there and panic sell orders. But the reversal from there actually issued a buy signal if we were looking to be a buyer, but since we believe we’re in a bear market, in bear markets you don’t take buy signals, and in bull markets you don’t take sell signals. We go with the trend, but we did get a buy signal, and we have to respect that.

A break of 797 would increase the probability we are in the midst of a leg down and an overall bear market. A break of this low would indicate follow-through. This is particularly true in light of the last five days of trade, so if we break this 797 low, we have trade action, trade recommendation for subscribers on what to do in anticipation of follow-through to the downside.

This is the setup in the March S&P. The last was at 839.80 and I believe that we closed a little bit higher today, as I’m coming to you just before the close on Tuesday afternoon.