Lesson 1 - Introduction: Forecasting in the Grand Tradition of W.D. Gann
1.6 - Generations Can Elapse before History Repeats
The old saying that "Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it" applies
notably to the area of speculation. By observing and comparing past market
movements to our current markets, we can determine what prices will do in
the future because the future is a repetition of the past. Price moves always
tell a story similar to previous chapters in history. By learning the history
of a commodity and the cycles that dominate its trade, we can then cash in
on the probability that similar conditions in the past will produce similar
results in the future. The more time spent studying history, the greater
one's confidence becomes.
After many years of applying this great market truth, it amazes me that so few take the time to consult history for the answers it gives. Commodity price data is not even available from any charting or data services before 1960. Having 44 years of data may seem like a long period of time, but in the context of history it offers very limited perspective. Cotton futures started trading in 1867; corn, wheat and oat futures started trading in 1877. Coffee, sugar and cocoa began trading in 1881, 1916 and 1926, respectively. Cash prices, while hard to find, are available in almost every commodity for the past 200 years. The reason prices are unavailable is because there is so little demand.
go to section 1.7
|
