Lesson 1 - Introduction: Forecasting in the Grand Tradition of W.D. Gann
1.8 - Our Memories are Short
Gann stressed another quality about human beings, which we need to appreciate. Our memories are short. It is difficult to remember the past. When you look at the history of markets over a 100-year period, it becomes clear that price eruptions take place periodically in every market and by definition these are intervals when opportunity is far greater than at other times.
This is what Gann wrote : "The Bible says, 'There is a time for everything.'
All the laws of nature teach this. There is a time to sow and a time to reap.
The four seasons of the year teach us that there is a reaping time and a sowing
time, and that we can not reverse this order of nature's laws. It is the same
with the stock market. There is a time to buy and a time to sell. You must
learn to go with the tide, and not against it.
"History proves that wars break out every 20 to 25 years. It also proves that
there is a great wave of Speculation and Boom of some kind in nearly every country
every 20 to 25 years. Why do these war periods and boom times come at such regular
cycles or intervals? The main cause of these is that human nature never changes.
Every 20 years a new generation comes along. They are full of hope, optimistic
and are progressive and up-to-date. They are inexperienced. They know nothing
of war or of the bitterness of war, because they have never been in a fight.
They are anxious to get in to a fight. It is easy for the politicians to induce
the young men to go to war, but it is hard to get the old fellows who have had
the bitter experience and the suffering, to go to war. They want no more of it.
The young buck is wild and always ready to run and to fight.
"It is the same with the commodity market. The young generations either have
inherited money or they make money, and they want to take a chance. It is the
nature of young to gamble, to take chances, and to be fearless of danger. Therefore,
the young generation is anxious and eager to try their hands at speculation."
go to section 1.9
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